Showing posts with label Interventionism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Interventionism. Show all posts

Saturday, February 24, 2007

It's About Morality and Culture, Stupid

Daniel Larison sucessfully rips into one of the main pillars of neoconic ideology related to - the notion that Muslim Islamist disdain our freedom.

The “they hate us for our freedoms” line is pure garbage. I don’t know how else to put it. Sayyid Qutb didn’t like how Coloradoans danced in 1949, but he didn’t make it his life’s goal to attack Americans or to urge others to attack Americans and drive us out of the Near East…because we weren’t in the Near East and Muslims around the world had no reason to feel any particular animus towards America.

I discussed Sayyid Qutb in a recent post. It is clear from reading his perspective of the world that his first impression with western freedom was not revulsion at freedom but disgust at the moral state of the west. One must remember his impression was that of 1949-50 America.

Larison states...it was the export of American pop culture to the world in the decades that followed that lit the fuse. In many respects, the export of that culture has triumphed over local resistance (I have strong doubts that this is a desirable thing), but it has generated hostility to the general experience of globalisation and rapid cultural change and those processes are unavoidably associated with the United States because so many of the largest multinationals are associated in the minds of people around the world with this country.

In fact if one really looks at the motivation and goals of Osama Bin Laden (an heir to the thoughts of Sayyid) three things become clear. One, ultimately pan-Islamist wish to reestablish the caliphate. Second, to accomplish the first goal secular and amoral regimes within historic Islamic territory must be replaced. Third, to accomplish this western armies as well as overt and covert Weatern support of secular regimes in the Islamic world must be removed.

It is important to understand motivation. Failure to understand leads to the the acceptance of stupid notions such as the idea that there are people in other parts of the world that want to actually take away our freedom. Perhaps there is a degree of truth to this - they do wish to undermine our freedom to shape the world in our own image, to support regimes of our own choosing in their lands and to deploy our troops to Islamic lands as we please. Perhaps that much is true - but the idea they they actually wish to abridge our own freedom in our own homelands is just false. For right or wrong, these people have a pretty good and solid argument against the stationing of non-Muslim troops in the land of their two holiest sites.

Don't take me wrong, I am not saying that the ideology, based upon a perversion of Islam, held by Bin Laden and crew is correct. I have read the Koran, I do not purport to be an expert on Islamic theology, but none of the Muslims I know support the interpretation of verses and passages toward evil actions used by these people. In that sense they are just as morally degraded as their enemies.

So long as men remain immoral and separated from the rule of natural law these sorts of conflicts will continue. Immorality, faith in human reason above historic understanding are the at the root of evil- I suppose the neocons, communist, socialist, Islamist and secularist of the world will just never really understand that.

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Beware the Ides of March

Or as we called it down at The Citadel - f'ed up Febuary (long story there).

I decided to run this Iran strike theory as far into the rabbit hole as I can.

It seems the CVN-74 John C. Stennis ("Johnny Reb" - how ironic) will be on station in the Persian Arabian Gulf by 01 February. The Dwight D. Eisenhower is already there and has been there since October. My Navy buddies tell me the Ike could stay on station comfortably until April or May. With two carrier strike groups on station the Navy would be able to conduct continuous 24 hour ops and provide fleet security.

Redeploying additional Air Force assets is a logistical challenge but manageable and could be done within days - the Navy is always the first to move in these matters.

February is significant for Iran, 1-11 Feb is known as the 10-Day Dawn and marks the beginning of the Revolution. On 01 Feb 1979 Imam Khomeini returned to Iran and the revolution essentially began.

Nov 14 2006 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said "that two major technological achievements of the government will be made public during the Ten-Day Dawn (February 1-11) ceremonies." He also said in the same speech, “We are determined to master the nuclear fuel cycle and commission some 60,000 centrifuges to meet our demands.“ Nothing new there but certainly a clue as to what the major technological achievements relate to.

Sep 28 2006 "Russia and Iran signed Tuesday a supplementary agreement on the delivery of 80 metric tons of nuclear fuel to a nuclear power plant in southern Iran in March 2007, the head of Russia's nuclear exporter said." Add this to whatever fissionable material they have already acquired and they have the 'stuff' required to go to work.

A strike in the February-March time frame makes sense. The US could shuttle additional ground troops into Iraq by that time to ensure that the country could be secured - at least from Iranian invasion, we already know we cannot secure that place from the Iraqis no matter how many troops we send.

And just today:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad scorned the UN Security Council’s imposing sanctions on Iran, telling a crowd today that Iran had humiliated the United States in the past and would do so again.

These are the sort of words that Bush and company love as "justification" for war.

And then this "mother-of-all-battlesesqe" remark

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has kept up his defiance over Iran's nuclear programme, saying Tehran would deal an "historic slap" to Western nations if they launched military action.

Finally, Iran is pulling another Saddam trick from the bag - dumping dollars:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has asked state companies to cut dollar-based transactions to a minimum. Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, currently sells 57 percent of its oil in euros.

The plain truth is that Iran may have already reached peak production - particularly with her antiquated production facilities. She may actually need nuclear energy - they certainly cannot rely on say hydroelectric power. None of that matters. They have said all the bad words, done the bad deeds and made our little "friend" Israel upset.

If this is going to occur it must occur before the new Congress digs their heels in and settles in comfortably, while we have adequate troops on the ground across the border (aka "the surge") and far enough away from the 2008 election cycle to allow for things to blow over. February to March is my guess if I were a betting man.

From Sam Gardiner, COL USAF (RET)

When does it all come together? When could the United States pull the trigger on the military option? The most important point in understanding the window for an attack is that the military preparations will not be the determining factor. This operation will not resemble the six months of preparations for Operation Desert Shield in 1990. The preparations will be much less visible than the movements to the region in early 2003. We will not read about discussions with Turkey for basing permission. It will not be a major CNN event.

Instead, preparations will involve the quiet deployment of Air Force tankers to staging bases. We will see additional Navy assets moved to the region.