Prepare to Defend Thyself

This will be my last post in this series. I imagine that from time to time I will revisit the subject but my original intent was merely to highlight the subject in what I hope was a reasonable and rational way.

When I left the topic last I promised to talk about guns, but before that there are, I believe, other elements that must be addressed.

First take a good look at you, by that I mean your physical condition. Good grief you say "now he is going to preach some physical fitness regime, I thought we established several posts ago that becoming Rambo was not required". And in that last assumption you are correct.

But...

Before we talk any further about preparing for anything we should talk seriously about preparing for life in its many and varied forms. Life is not all about the sedentary or semi-sedentary. Your chances of surviving anything from a car crash to a nuclear holocaust to old age are greatly improved with better physical condition. In honesty I suppose old age will get you eventually no matter your physical condition but of course the length and quality might be significantly improved.

Ask yourself - can you perform even moderate physical tasks over an extended duration (say a few days) without "throwing out your back", having a heart attack or just plain giving out?

If you were in a "scuffle" with someone else would you be out of breath in less than a minute?

The point is "scuffling" which is what most physical conflicts turn into is tasking on the cardiovascular system as it engages major muscles all over the body.

I use this only as an example of things a person ought to think of if they envision ever having to deal with the nastier side of human nature, particularly if that is brought on by panic and desperation of a world out of whack.

You can imagine for yourself the scenarios that might place you in a "scuffle" in the various situations we have previously envisioned in other posts. Ask yourself if you are even able to load your car in a timely manner, haul things to and from your house or board up windows at a pace much faster than a leisurely Saturday afternoon project.

Can you pull up your on body weight? Could you carry an injured person to safety? You see where I am going with all of this, so I will leave it alone with one last word. Get out and take care of this foundational requirement - put an image in your head of your loved one in danger and you huffing and puffing unable to help them. If you never have to use your increased stamina for such an endeavor you will still enjoy the associated benefits.

On the subject of "scuffling" I often see a lot of discussion on survival forums about taking up a martial art. Well here is a story for you - I spent several years practicing tae kwon do as a child/teenager, I wrestled in high school and college and took judo in college and boxed a little to boot. That is a lot of time invested. I learned more in the Marine Corps LINE combat system and the Army Combatives system than all others combined - think of that before going to the local training center and investing 3 nights a week for two years.

While in Korea, my wife and two children earned their first degree black belts in tae kwon do and as my wife bragged to me one day of her new kick butt skills I told her plainly "she had learned enough to get hurt". That was not to diminish her accomplishment but rather to point out a simple fact. Unless you have an enormous amount of time or are interested for other reason I see no point in taking up a martial art as an adult. Work on your fitness level and if you are ever forced to "scuffle" simply be aggressive about it.

So I promised my last post would be about guns and here it is.

Ignore all the talk about semi-auto pistols with high capacity magazines. Why? Less safe for most people, the springs in the magazines "get tired" over time and may not feed when you want it too, are more complicated to disassemble and clean, and for most models are hard to conceal. Do I own semi-auto pistols? Yes. Do they have a task and purpose? Yes. They should not be your first purchase or your only purchase.

This should -A double action revolver in calibers .38, .44, .45 or 356

I like the Tarus Judge MODEL 4510 .45/.410 because it chambers both a .45 for longer range and a .410 shotgun shell for close work (good for a nervous shooter in close quarters), and it is inexpensive.

The discussion could go on but I recommend the Tarus because it is a perfect pair with the shotgun I recommend--

The Moosburg HS .410 Home Defender. Comes with an integrated laser sight and a barrel designed for spread at 5-25m. The ballistics of the .410 are better that .44 at the intended range and the shot is less likely to penetrate secondary walls. All good for less than expert shooters.

I can already read the hate mail in my mind about the .410 cartridge but ballistic test have proven its effectiveness in close quarters and that is what we are talking about for new shooters. I do not want or suggest a new shooter attempt to "snipe" and get themselves killed. I would rather they hide and hope they are not found and shoot only if they are. The HS 410 serves that role well.

Folks seems to get too worked up about guns, what kind, how many etc. - the two above are a good start for anyone without guns - if you decide on different models I would definitely stick with a double action revolver and a pump action shotgun. Unless you plan to actually practice more than once a year I don't see the point in recommending a rifle (if I were to recommend one it would be the mini-14, it fires US military cartridges).

And there you have it - the discussion of guns could go on and on - if you want that go find a forum where folks argue endlessly about the merits of their stash versus someone else's.

I hope these posts have forced you to think a bit and perhaps even motivated you to act. I may add additional posts on related subjects in the future as I am about to buy a piece of property that I hope will become my "retirement/survival" retreat. The area around my little farm in SC has grown up too much in the years I have been away in the Army.

Bugging Out: How, Where, Why

When last we left the subject we had begun to think about what we would need to bug out from our urban home. We developed a list of scenarios that would cause such a bug out (that was your homework) and we developed a tentative plan (your homework also).

Let us assume then that the scenario you have developed for yourself is occurring but to add a bit of fun to the discussion I will add an atmosphere akin to the LA riots in the early 1990's along and surrounding your escape route.

What in your plan covers such a contingency? Did you plan to take both cars? Who is driving and who is riding shotgun (renewed meaning to the word)?

The argument could go a dozen ways over whether to take both cars or one; I come down on the side of one for this reason. In the husband and wife team likely only one of you is the better driver - in this case I am talking about the person that can make split-second decisions, rapid maneuvers if required and avoid at all costs stopping the vehicle anytime and anywhere you do not choose. Maybe it is the man, maybe the woman but it is probably not the person you as a married couple have determined that when driving causes the least amount of arguments - it just might be the most offensive driver in ordinary times that gets this job. Two cars, with a nervous driver in a bad situation might get you all killed.

Whichever of you is the choice, you need to talk about it in advance and the other person needs to fully understand their job as well. No matter what the circumstances of your evacuation when you decide to leave your driveway you should consider the trip a "combat patrol" from the onset. You cannot predict human behavior in any other terms than to say that people do nasty things to other people in nasty times. Leave thinking that way and travel that way.

The driver in in complete control of the space in and around the vehicle for 100 yards or so; meaning specifically that in any high stress situations that arise the very last thing needed is an additional driver shouting instructions. Everyone in the vehicle should be alert to all around them and they should verbalize things they see, but not to the point of telling the driver to do X or Y. You have to get that point - if need be, in the proper situation - the driver's job is to keep the vehicle moving. Minor fender damage or an casual approach to traffic regulations do not matter at that point if the potential exist for folks to be yanked from vehicles like a scene from 1992 LA.

The person riding "shotgun" is the navigator, responsible for the next turn, and for space beyond 100 yards. You have to get this division of labor down to routine. This person needs to be able to read road maps, operate the GPS (better yet READ the map) and if you are inclined to take my sage gun advice - shoot to kill.

Of the two the driver is most important, he/she must be the coolest under pressure and the quickest thinker. And remember this is absolutely no time for road rage - and it is no time to allow yourself to get pinned in between the car in front of you and behind you. The driver has to be very aware and attune to his surroundings.

So what are you driving? Well obviously one of what you own and unless you plan to make a purchase at some point you have what you have.

I would argue that a 4WD is very important for a bug out vehicle. Many will argue the point but here is how I see it. Any interstate used for an evacuation will get bogged down by numerous things. I would like the option of turning off the interstate, going up that embankment and moving on and away from that crowd. A 4WD is perfect just for that. The upside is that so many folks already have SUV's with 4WD - that they never engage - this piece of advice is just a bonus. A SUV is not terrible to sleep in and it is easy to pack with your stuff without advertising like my Jeep.

Now for a dynamic that kills preparation - one of the couple gets it and the other may not. I am about to suggest a few items that ought to be standard in the escape vehicle, but if this happens to be your wife's SUV - well good luck.

-CB Radio - to ease the pain of this look at one of the micro versions you could hide in the glove box (MIDLAND 75-822 MICRO HANDHELD CB RADIO). My wife laughed that she was "not a trucker" and would not have one of these things until I found the micro version.
-Full size spare tire
-Roadside repair kit with full jack and fixaflat
-Motorola UHF Radios -one per family member (T9680RSAME Rechargeable Two-Way Radio) for mom and dad, (Mini USB Car Charger) x 2, (FV700R NiMH Rechargeable Two-Way Radio) for the kiddies. Never leave the car without communication, never leave the car without someone in the driver seat with car running, and pistol close by.
-an AC/DC power inverter
-an extra 12v battery
-snow chains? only you know where you live

Putting extra fuel in the vehicle is problematic and suggesting to the wife that you want to mount brackets for fuel cans on her SUV could be deadly, but stowing them on the luggage rack when the time comes - that is just good business. The extra tire can go there as well.

That covers how, remember it is a "combat patrol" from the time you leave your house until you get to a place that you feel safer. Every stop, every vehicle on the road with you, every encounter with someone else in the "panic zone" must be addressed by your SOP discussed above and worked out in detail- be ever vigilant. Remember constant radio communication between vehicle and the person outside the vehicle when you stop, leave a driver in the vehicle with the engine running, every time, everywhere until you are out of the craziness.


So where are you going? That depends upon your level of preparation and the level of the event you are running from. I believe it prudent to resolve early on that you will not become a refugee, you will not go to a shelter or a camp.

Here are two suggestions that you may do with as you please. (this assumes you do not want to go so far as to buy a survival retreat)

Buy a used travel trailer and store it at a self storage facility several miles outside of your city. When you bug out, go first to your storage lot and pick up your new temporary home. One of these things can be had very cheaply, remember you are not looking to impress the neighbors at the campsite with your home on wheels, you just need shelter that is not provided by the government. Map out in advance campsites near your storage area but away from the panic zone.

Many will say that this is an inadequate solution, particularly in a long-term national crisis such as an economic collapse but I argue that for those that do not want to go full into the survival mode this is a viable alternative. Even if the plan is to travel on to relatives and stay there, you would likely be more comfortable with the option of occasionally sleeping away from the crowd (love nest anyone?)

An alternative to this plan is to rent storage space at the facility mentioned above and cache items that you may not bring with you or may lose/use/damage along the way, extra tires, clothes, storable food. I would go so far as to suggest stocking this place with cots, a heater, and blankets in the event you decide to bed down in your storage space after a long trip out of the city.

A third option is to do both of the above. Pre-stage a cheap camper and rent storage space for a cache of good to have items. This is all dictated by budget but $4-5K for a camper and $38/month for a storage container does not seem like a lot. Just make sure you get your escape vehicle configured to haul the camper long before you need it. Also ensure to rent from a place with 24 hour access, and preferably not via a caretaker who may not be there when the panic comes.

Lastly - why exactly are you leaving? You must know this, depending upon the circumstances it may be obvious. Other times it may not be. Decide to leave only if you know or reasonably expect that where you are going is better than where you are. Think about that. Recommended evacuations and panic are not reasons to leave - particularly if you do not have a good plan. Becoming a refugee is your fate without a plan. There could be benefit to weathering the initial rush to leave in place - so long as you can provide for your family and defend yourself. This is of course situationally dependent but you have to be prepared to ask yourself why you are considering a particualr option and you have to prepare to actually give yourself a second option.

First Things First: The Bug-Out-Bag

If my modest readership will permit me I shall continue down this rabbit hole I have begun to traverse....

If you thought deeply, or at all about my last post then perhaps you are ready to ask yourself a few questions - some of which I can list, others that only you can ask because of your specific knowledge of you, your family and the exact environment in which you live.

What sorts of scenarios do you foresee (buy into) for your particular geographic area? Are these just natural disasters with the potential for the occasional two-legged misbehavior? Do you believe it possible that someone, somewhere might actually use one or a hundred of the thousand(s) nuclear weapons around the world - do you think your city would be a target - do you believe you would have warning?

Do you plan to leave your city? Where would you go? How would you communicate with your family and those that would go with you if you decided that leaving right now was necessary? What if the cellphone and landline networks were clogged as in the aftermath of the NYC attacks?

What if you could not get money out of an ATM and your tank was on empty? I bet at least one of your cars is below half full right now isn't it. How much cash do you have in the house right this second? Leaving in a forced or rush evacuation might get a little ugly with those facts being real.

Do you have a 72 hour kit? A spare pair of glasses, a supply of your required prescription meds? Important documents? Do you know where all this and could you grab it and go? Don't worry, most Americans could not either.

Before your turn off the terms survivalist and prepper think about the simple and straightforward things.

(Insert here any reasonable reason why you and 10 million or so other people in your area have to leave your homes very fast)

Imagine yourself if you will, sitting on a interstate with all traffic going away from your city. Your half a tank of gasoline is edging ever nearer to empty. You are far behind the rush because it took you a very long time to get hold of your wife, as the cellphone network was jammed with people doing just what you were. You spent way too much time at home, running around trying to figure out what to grab.

You took a chance at one exit on what you considered the perimeter of the city to attempt to buy gasoline. After leaving your place in the long line of cars leaving the city and waiting in another long line at the pump you find out that: One, they are experiencing the same problems with phone lines as everyone else and are selling via cash only; Two you cannot get cash from the ATM for the same reason - and in any event if it did work it would have been sucked dry by now anyway; Three, because you rely almost exclusively on your plastic (debit or credit cards) neither you or your wife have enough cash to make a dent in the tank anyway.

We could go on with this...you and your family stuck now on the side of the road with others that prepared as well as you. Imagine spending the night out there with angry, scared people -- would you sleep very well thinking of what COULD happen to your family? In any case where the heck are you driving anyway? If this is just a local or regional thing then one assumes most people have family everywhere. If it is more national than regional - did you just become a refugee? We will talk about that.

___

First things first - if you will continue to journey down this path with me is to build/do the following:

1. Make a plan
2. Carry around kit
3. 72 hour kit (Bug out Kit)

Make a Plan:
The news says any number of events on the list you develop occur (or heaven forbid the news outlets are silent in the very worst-case sorts of scenarios). You plan assumes that cell communication may be spotty or unavailable. Your plan allows you to begin execution of key tasks; i.e. pick up the kids, ensure the car in filled with gasoline, everyone meets at home (or where ever makes sense and grabs the 72 hour kits). At this point you are able to make wise informed decisions about your next move. Such a plan might, I say might, include a rendezvous point outside the city if everyone does not get home when expected and contact cannot be established. (You dead on the subway is no reason for your family to die waiting for you if your plan is to displace). ---This topic probably deserves a lot more discussion, in a future post I will point to areas where people are already discussing this a great length

Carry Around Kit:
A small backpack that should be with you at all times and contains essential items that you just might want to have if you are at the office, on the subway etc when things start going all wrong. Moving across a city in chaos could be perilous and will take time.

72 Hour Kit (Bug-out Bag)
This is everything you and each member of your family needs to survive for 72 hours (you need one bag per family member). Many suggest having one or more of these bags at different locations (work, office, car) effectively doing away with the "Carry around bag". There is merit to this because setting up a 72 Hour Kit is not inexpensive and while it is not overly bulky it is not terribly small. While I was in Korea I opted for a smaller "carry around bag" simply because I did not want to haul a full kit on the subway with me - it is a personal risk assessment decision that you have to make.

At a basic minimum, your kit at home should contain all the document, or copies of such, you would need to establish critical elements of who you are in addition to your prescriptions, food, water, clothes etc. (remember this is the stuff you use to allow you to get to where you are going and make good decisions along the way - not desperation decisions).

Just google Bug out bag - the discussions and options are too many to list here.

No mater what you read and what you decide I think the following ought to be in your bag:

Multitool, meds, First Aid kit, cash, small flashlight, matches, fleece jacket and cap, working gloves, charged prepaid cell phone, copies of important papers, photos of family (for missing persons boards), maps of your route and surrounding area, compass, rain parka, small AM/FM radio (or better), antiseptic hand wash (use it often, as an old field Soldier I can tell you what happens if you do not), can opener, toilet paper, headache/painkiller, nodoze/caffeine pills, small bottle of water purification tablets, water bottles (72 hour supply), baby wipes, duct tape, plastic trash bags x4, 100 foot parachute chord, energy bars

You can fit all of that nicely in back pack (here and here are nice ones but cheaper models will do)

That is the cheap man's version basic kit - many will suggest more; Motorola Talkabouts, GPS, pistol and I would too, but the above list is a nice starter for anyone - whether you stay in place a few days or bug out that kit ought to save a lot of burden.

Next Post: Where are you going and why?

What Will You Do?

I think I will become Catholic - this is not the subject of this post but sitting in church this morning I could not prevent my mind from running to other subjects. Why you may ask? Contemporary worship - everybody seems to think that is how it must be done. Since I am posted in the middle of nowhere I have only one protestant choice (well two I guess if I considered the Gospel service a real option). Perhaps more on this later...

I was thinking how little I like the term "survivalist" - it is too open ended in its possible meanings and too closed in its perceived meaning. The term in vogue in many places is "prepper" - that just sounds silly to me. I do not yet have an alternative to these terms but let it be noted I like neither and use them only as a frame of reference for anyone that my Google the topics I speak of.

The ideologies encompassing "survivalist" are many and diverse - almost religious in nature. To be certain the reason many become survivalist/preppers in the first place is based upon a religious viewpoint. I am not just talking about Mormons in this regard. There is a large New Age segment in the survivalist community, folks looking to avoid the pain of what they call the "quickening" (and all this time I thought that was something from a Highlander movie).

Of course many people do not become survivalist/prepper for religious reasons as well. We all "know" that America is the Lion and that we have a prime place in the coming end and that all Christians will be pulled out before things get bad. So why prepare for anything at all if one holds that sort of religious world view.

I have my opinions about all three groups listed above and will only say that I do not fall into any of those groups. I think if I had to apply a term to describe me it would be something like "Future Homesteader of America", or maybe more accurately "Pragmatic realist determined not to go hungry or cold a single day on account of massive government stupidity". Yeah that is me - that sums it up - do you think the term will catch on? Probably not.

Despite the ideological and religious differences that cause most people to prepare the benefit to the community as a whole is increased knowledge. There are a lot of people out there figuring out how to do certain things and also figuring out what does not work. This saves everyone money and time.

The thing is, everyone ought to be a "prepper" of some sort. Even if it is nothing more than the "I can live fairly comfortably for a week without power and no access to the grocery store". Of course we are not there and never will be there - but it seems to me that every family should at the least be that prepared.

If, on the other hand, you are interested in going further - just how far? First to put away a couple of images and then ask a few questions.

Up front and right now put away the images of a family or single individual living in a secure cabin in the woods on a southern exposed ravine. For now dismiss the images of you as the hero or a story yet to be written fighting off mobs of two-legged predators hell-bent on taking your food, raping your wife and carting off your children. Forget the images of you as Daniel Boone, bringing home game and skin for your wife to cook, clean and preserve. Put all that away because the reality is that most of you because of age, physical condition or skill-set know you will never be Robinson Crusoe/Rambo/Daniel Boone all wrapped into one. That is a realistic approach, but not a reason to dismiss survivalism altogether. (later we will talk about all those things but for now put them away - they many never apply to you)

Forget, for the moment, that becoming a survivalist means you have to stockpile enough weapons and ammunition to outfight a rifle company. My theory, based upon having been to two war zones more than one time each - a place where everyone has guns and food/water/medicine/government control are not always present - is this. For most people, the required use of a gun to defend their lives, the lives of their family or their property is on average at worst a once in a life-time event.

Hold the hate-mail.

I believe this is the average for a reasonable man even in a terrible situation. Should everyone own a gun, and reasonably know how to use it - darn right. My point is this, for most that might wish to survive most events most of the time the requirement to "gun up" is no greater than the ordinary common-sense requirement to defend one's home in regular times.

Starting from those two points then ask yourself, are you ready to survive most of the circumstances that might face you and your family most of the time (remember no plan is perfect and people die even with good planning - so for sanity and economical reasons we are looking at the "most situations most of the time survival goal").


I will address the rest of this to most of the population - not to the folks living in the country but those in large cities and in the surrounding suburbs. And that is for the next post.

Planning to Failure or Failure to Plan

"The fact that our culture’s only vision of someone who is prepared is the survivalist curled up in a shack with his stash of guns suggests that we fundamentally think that preparation for negative outcomes is on the whacked out side." - Sharon

Add the negative image of those that prepare to our current cultural aversion to saving anything and it is no wonder that the circumstance she describes about the recent power outages in her area are true.

And this leads to a painful reality - despite the fact that winter power outages happen out my way all the time, we know for a fact that the extended outages in my region there will leave us with people who are freezing, and hungry, isolated and unable to cope. They won’t have the batteries for their flashlights, or any strategy for cooking or eating. At best, they will come out of this traumatized and miserable. At worst, some of them may actually die.

Of course she is talking of simple, predictable things like power outages resulting from winter storms and people living in areas prone to such still not preparing.

Make Your Survivalist Friend Happy at Christmas

HT to Robert for doing the research for the original list

15 Survival Gadgets for under $40 for your Christmas Wish list (or gift giving).

-Leatherman 830032 Blast Multitool with Leather Sheath
-Ultimate Survival StrikeForce Fire Starter
-Gerber 04171 Suspension Butterfly Opening Multi-Plier, with Sheath
-Gerber 22-80012 Infinity Ultra Task LED Flashlight, Black
-Eton FR400 Self-Powered Water-Resistant AM/FM Radio with NOAA and TV-VHF (Defender)
-Fiskars Pro Chopping Axe #7858
-Fiskars Brush Axe #7860
-Survive!: Essential Skills and Tactics to Get You Out of Anywhere - Alive
-SAS Survival Handbook: How to Survive in the Wild, in Any Climate, on Land or at Sea
-US Army Survival Manual: FM 21-76
-Klean Kanteen Stainless Steel Water Bottles
-Nightstar Magnetic Force Flashlight Hi-Tech Clear
-Ultimate Survival Technologies BlastMatch All Weather Firestarter (orange)
-Ultimate Survival Technologies SaberCut Saw (Black)
-Crystal River Travel Fly / Spinning Rod

Most of the items would make a nice addition to any one's "carry around bag" (this is the essential item you carry with you everywhere because if you live in the real world and get out and about for work or pleasure - how stupid would you feel to be stuck in a bad situation without a simple 5-10lbs bag handy with a few goodies?)

Clearly you notice that most of these items are not "offensively" survivalist in nature and perhaps a good way to give a gift that will get someone thinking.

I would suggest also "The Official Handbook for Boys" for anyone that was not fortunate enough to have actually of been a Boy Scout. Or the 1911 edition for those that were and have perhaps forgotten what it meant and what they learned. My son and I have been spending weekends and free days going through the various skills taught in that fine book to ensure that he completely gets it. Scouting is a fabulous organization but more importantly the skills they teach are those every man should have. Anyone that does not know these basic skills would do well to study this book. I personally think the 1911 edition would be a great gift for a former scout (hint, hint to those that read this and love me). Be Prepared!

FM 21-76 is one of the finest Army manuals written - you can buy it in hardback from any major book seller. I read this entire book before I was 12 and went out and practiced many of the skills taught therein. My poor son is now feeling that same "pain". This is another basic primer that any man ought to be familiar with.

The two books mentioned are of course not the sum and total of the knowledge required to get a person and his family through a SHTF situation - but I would bet money that if you do not know those skills as a base any and all other preparations would be worthless in the long-run.

No Bailout, What Does It Mean?

Firstly. I must admit I am not as astute as I fancy myself. Why and how the the Senate Republicans found it within themselves to to do something right - and this was no small thing. I was certain the Federal Government would give in on this issue. I was wrong.

My thought was that this bailout was a given and would be passed - with some wringing of hands and clamoring of distaste but passed all the same. I assumed this would but one of many more such events to come over the next months or years in an effort to fight off the inevitable.

Of course these things are not "over" until they are over - there are more than one way to skin any cat. If the results of Big 3 bankruptcy gets to bad this could get another look, or perhaps the current or the new administration will find a way to move funds around to accomplish the same goal as the original bailout - time will tell.

What dies this all mean?

SEOUL (Reuters) - The collapse of a proposed bailout for U.S. automakers has raised fears of a deeper economic slowdown and further financial shocks that may jeopardize worldwide efforts to ease a global recession.

Any failure or bankruptcy of General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co or Chrysler LLC could cost tens of thousands of jobs, hit credit markets and disrupt the auto industry's global supply chain, economists said on Friday...

Some economists warned that any failure of U.S. automakers could cause a fall in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, further hitting the country's battered financial system and economy. "A jump in U.S. corporate bankruptcy may prompt investors to flee the dollar and U.S. Treasuries amid concerns over a bubble in Treasuries," said Park Sang-hyun, chief economist at HI Investment & Securities.

That is certainly one perspective, perhaps absolutely correct. For how long and how deep could this recession reach? Depression levels? Further opinion -

Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- A bankruptcy filing by General Motors Corp. or Chrysler LLC might send the U.S. economy into chaos within weeks if it led to a shutdown at the companies.

Industry experts and economists say the automakers would close plants, fire tens of thousands of workers and cut production. That would cause many of their suppliers to collapse, triggering more job losses, straining the cities and states where the car and parts companies operate, as well as federal safety-net programs...

“It would be unprecedented,” says Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. “So it’s hard to say exactly what would happen.”

Still, a GM or Chrysler bankruptcy “would be the start of a cascade of failures,” says Dennis Virag, president of Automotive Consulting Group in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “The economy will be in chaos within weeks.”

The "trickle down" theory in reverse.

I find it hard to believe the Federal government will not do something un-Constitutional before things reached such a level. From the same article we find...

The Bush administration said today it will consider using money from the $700 billion bank-bailout fund to prevent GM and Chrysler from “collapsing.”

Of course if Bush is unwilling to violate the Constitution one more time before leaving office I suspect that Obama will do the job pretty quickly.

I believe that we should take one thing away from this - the Federal Government still can and will head this off. Moving debt and failure from one place to another is still an option. As ugly as the prospects of this collapse are it will happen someday. The more we stall it, the more the delay the bigger the eventual fall. Just pause to think what it would mean to you right now today if the chaos and turmoil predicted by a collapse of these three companies would mean to you and your family.

This will be our reality, later if not now, and when it comes it will be bad. This is why I am determined to write on the issues surrounding surviving a SHTF scenario...

More for your consideration (and to spur your desire to prepare)

Car Vote May Tip US Into Depression
U.S. weekly jobless claims jump to 26-year high
Homelessness rising as economy slides

Foundations and Fundemental SHTF Beliefs of Fact

There are several points of fact that I believe it is important to establish before we proceed down this path of discussing dark and gloomy matters. Some may argue these are just my beliefs, I will freely debate any point below in detail if anyone wishes. I stand that these are facts.

1. Throughout history governments have fallen and societies have collapsed for reasons not dissimilar to what we face. These are seldom bloodless events, the governments seldom go quietly into the night without a few last kicks. People survive, they come through on the other side, but many die and most suffer.
2. Conspiracies are not to blame for what is likely to occur. Sure various groups, probably many groups have objectives they keep secret but there is no overarching secret conspiracy. If you want something to blame try the seven deadly sins.
3. Your local police are not your friend in an emergency (great or small SHTF). Look at the gun grabbing and door kicking after Katrina - it was not an anomaly. Police in a medium sized town such as Cedar Rapids pursued the same sort of tyrannical behavior after this year's floods. This is now standard practice - your rights, your property, ultimately your individual safety mean nothing. The goal is control.
4. The American populace is, on a whole, completely unprepared to provide any degree of self-sufficiency to itself during a short or long term difficulty.
5. The myth of the self-capable Southerner or Westerner is in large part just that now, a myth replaced by a reality of overweight "good ole boys" that still fancy themselves capable of man's work but are instead suburbanites with a few toys and hobbies.
6. Our reliance on "super-stores" has all but eliminated the local economies in most locales, just-in-time inventory will be a bit too late I think in the times ahead.
7. FEMA camps, shelters and holding areas are crime-ridden, disease-filled cesspools.
8. Extraordinary times will call for extraordinary measures - did you get upset about the Patriot Act? At least you were able to complain about it at the time.
9. The US gang population consists of 31,000 gangs in all 50 states comprising 850,000 members. These folks may not be prepared to survive but they would easily present a large group of two-legged predators in a serious crisis situation for anyone living in their path.
10. Americans demand and expect their government to fix things (at least the majority and they will be the ones causing all the trouble). Government fixes will last as long as the government can print money and float loans - when that no longer works effectively? You know what, rigid control, martial law, riots and disorder - essentially two possibilities a breakdown of our society or a rapid march toward an Orwellian society.

I think 10 will do as an initial foundation - just so you know where I am coming from in my belief of the facts.

After The Fall

It seems that sometimes events conspire to occur at the same time as to force one to think again about old issues. First, over the last two weekends my wife and I watched "Jericho" season one and two. Second, a few days ago I come across an article discussing a prediction by Igor Panarin predicting that the US will collapse and fall into six parts as a result of our economic malfeasance. Third, The National Bureau of Economic Research declares what most already knew the US is in the midst of a recession. Fourth, some economists have begun to predict the possibility of a depression. And then of course there is the fact that even Icelanders are rioting over their economic woes Icelanders, good grief. Lastly, my experience with after Thanksgiving shoppers reminded me of the greed at the base of humankind, and made me wonder what these animals would do if they were hungry and not merely looking for bargains.

As a student of history I know that old orders always pass away, sometimes quietly, sometimes violently. There is no reason not to assume the current order will fare any different. The question is all about when and how.I know in the past we had a few survivalist minded folk as regular readers here and I suppose that what I am about to write will appear rather bothersome to several widely held beliefs within that community. Bear with me.

Firstly, I think Panarins predictions are a bit premature even if taken over a rather long view of say 10-15 years. Economic collapse is not something that our Federal government would accept as a verdict on its policies and ideologies. It would not simply close up shop and pass away, admitting defeat and stepping aside for a better system to replace it. No, I am afraid they will deficit spend, borrow from foreign creditors, devalue the dollar when we can no longer make good on foreign debt and exact taxes at a rate unfathomable right now simply to remain in power. The grasping at power will be a long slow death, one that shall take us all on a willy-nilly ride to the edge of the abyss. And, sadly, we will go along for the ride with only minor disruptions along the way. In such a scenario there will certainly be riots and disturbances along the way but these will not be motivated from the perspective of a desire to change the system they will rather be demands for goods and services from the government to ease the pain of the ride.

Such disturbances and cries for help will serve only to validate the tyranny that will surely become part and parcel of our daily lives. If one thinks that the patriot movementfolks have it all wrong today with their warnings of growing tyranny I suspect that in the years to come the rational man will bow his head and sign if I only knew.

Even in this most dire of situations most people will consider their current happiness, safety and comfort paramount to all else - fixing the system at its core be damned.

Such a ride could last 20-30 years or in a scale of one human lifetime a virtual eternity. A central government determined to retain power can do so, at great cost it is possible.

Many in the survivalist community foresee a future in which our government, faced with economic collapse and social turmoil simply could not stand. If only it were true, for if this worst case scenario were to play out it would be our Federal Government that has brought it about and it would not deserve to stand. But history teaches us that power vacuums never exist, governments never go quietly into the night. I have studied data collected by the Ark Two people and I am convinced that even in the event of a large scale nuclear attack on say 20 US cities the Federal Government would survive. Perhaps the scenario would play out much like in Jerichoand it would take a few months for men with guns to arrive to your town and state we are from the government and are here to help....but someone with guns would show up. So even in the worst case the power vacuum would exist for no more than a year at most, probably much less (not saying survival preparations are not important, just the notion of an end to the world and a few rugged survivors rebuilding a agrarian utopia is unrealistic).

And why do I believe that our Russian prognosticator is wrong about the US breaking up into six parts in the short-term is wrong (beyond the facts stated above that the Federal Government would cling to ever last bit of power).

Simply stated...will

There are no regions in the continental US that are homogeneous in culture and philosophy to assert themselves as a separate entity for some time. Perhaps Hawaii if the tourist dollars stopped flowing, maybe Puerto Rico if the economic benefits stopped. Who else? Not the South we have forsaken our heritage. Alaska maybe independent minded and oil-rich. New England perhaps and maybe the only candidate in the lower 48. Nobody else has the will or identity to ask to get off the ride before it stops. Put aside your hopes of a free this or that while I am still a young man. Much education and much culture building must occur first and I am not sure that the simple principles of good culture can actually compete with the illusion offered by pop-culture.

Insurgency you say surely there would be good men willing to promise their lives, liberty and sacred honor to the cause of watering the tree of liberty.

Lets talk about that. The fact is the US military has become pretty good at COIN (counterinsurgency operations). Dont believe the hype, right or wrong, we are winning the counterinsurgency fight in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Our primary problem is that new fighters keep rolling into the fight. We plugged the border pretty well in Iraq and the fight has shifted t0 the Stan with a much more porous frontier. We have even reconfigured our formations we are in fact a constabulary Army. The new brigade combat teams are agile and efficient in a low-intensity fight and police work. They would get pummeled in a high-intensity brawl but that is not the point. Ten years ago we could not spell COIN....now we are pretty good at it.

And if you are thinking that without high-tech gear and constant resupply the Army would simply stall I propose that this in not the case. To be certain operating motorized as opposed to mechanized, without many of the toys would be less efficient, but it would be effective. Even in hard times the military would still be a formidable adversary to a domestic insurgency.

That is not to say it would be unbeatable and herein is the problem. We have no basis for an insurgency in the US. In the Middle East the foe we fight has tribal and religious ties that transcend any artificial government. As a people we have little understanding of history or political philosophy - hard to build a movement without ideas.

The center of gravity of American sentiment is based upon nothing more than temporary safety, comfort and happiness. American troops in the counterinsurgency fight in the Middle East have become very adept and non-kinetic operations designed to quell a village of discontent. You would be amazed at the friendship water and power can buy. Americans with no other loyalties than to themselves would be easier to buy.The counterinsurgency fight is all about the center of gravity and Americans are too accustomed to accepting empty promises if they appear to benefit them personally. No insurgency could survive in those conditions.

In any event successful insurgencies require 10% of the populations support (if there is foreign aid) and a significantly higher percentage without foreign assistance. The American Revolutionwas supported by 25-33% of the population and tremendous support from France at the critical points at the end. Just think about that 10% of our population (30,113,994) willing to become criminals andsacrifice their welfare and safety for an ideal not going to happen I am afraid.

What to do? Stop voting for commercialized talking heads, pray, pay off your debts, learn to grow a small garden, buy a few guns, read history, learn sustainable skills and find friends in your community that get it. Basically prepare to hunker down and ride out the storm and hope that the worst case does not come to pass. I for one believe it is inevitable.

Peak Oil or Depression

Both it seems...

I have attempted to wrap my mind around the real reason that gas prices have fallen so drastically since I "left the world". It seems that the answer, or at least a reasonable theory that serves is an answer is decreased demand resulting from other economic woes. That is such a simplistic answer (albeit it is riddled with economic mysticism at its core) to be beautiful. Peak oil has not gone away you see, oh no far from it. The over all product in the ground has not increased, production facilities to suck up those pesky hard to get drops in untapped places have not been developed. Supply remains the same, demand has decreased.

Peak oil has not gone away....

But depression - that is deflation right. It is hard to see deflation in prices anywhere right? Perhaps if we look at the "good retail season" and all the deep discounts out there. Folks are rejoicing that Black Friday was a success but maybe this is a two-edged sword. If people are buying because prices are cut so deeply could that not be the initial stages of a deflationary period. What happens in Febuary or March after everyone has used up their disposable income (or last bit of their credit line) on deeply discounted merchandise? Do retailers then discount things even further? At what point are companies moving products at so deep a discount just to generate some cash flow that they cannot continue to produce/procure?

From The Automatic Earth

Thanks to a credit boom that dates back to at least the early 1980s, and which accelerated rapidly after the millennium, the vast majority of the effective money supply is credit. A credit boom can mimic currency inflation in important ways, as credit acts as a money equivalent during the expansion phase. There are, however, important differences. Whereas currency inflation divides the real wealth pie into smaller and smaller pieces, devaluing each one in a form of forced loss sharing, credit expansion creates multiple and mutually exclusive claims to the same pieces of pie. This generates the appearance of a substantial increase in real wealth through leverage, but is an illusion. The apparent wealth is virtual, and once expansion morphs into contraction, the excess claims are rapidly extinguished in a chaotic real wealth grab. It is this prospect that we are currently facing today, as credit destruction is already well underway, and the destruction of credit is hugely deflationary. As money is the lubricant in the economic engine, a shortage will cause that engine to seize up, as happened in the 1930s. An important point to remember is that demand is not what people want, it is what they are ready, willing and able to pay for. The fall in aggregate demand that characterizes a depression reflects a lack of purchasing power, not a lack of want. With very little money and no access to credit, people can starve amid plenty.

According to the author credit, or more accurately an uncontrolled credit boom is the problem. Of course at the root of that is a prevailing sense of entitlement and greed. The author is kind in their description calling it "high expectations" - perhaps - greedy and materialistic fit too I believe.

I must admit, even when I try to read and stay connected to the world I live far from it. I currently leave on a small Army post in the middle of the desert, before here I was stationed in Korea and between here and there I have been back to the middle east. I have been away from home all of my adult life - I do not really know what goes on in the lives or regular people. My wife tells me from time to time that she talked to so-and-so and that they are losing their job or that their company is cutting back etc. My mother told me on the phone the other day that our local paper back home had six pages of foreclosures. These are things I cannot connect to or understand. I do not have debt, I do not worry about losing my job, I do not know anyone who does (well I have had troops get into debt problems but that is not really what I meant - their issues are generally related to too much stereo equipment and not enough paycheck, they will still have a place to live regardless).

I do know that I have been searching very hard for a piece of land way out in the boonies. I have not been able to help but notice that land is cheap.

I suppose this is all worth watching - as I have suggested before it seems high time to prepare to secede from things because if predictions of doom and gloom are correct and deflationary times are coming the man that can provide for himself and his family will be infinitely better off. And maybe, just maybe, come March that laptop that crazy woman ripped from my hands will go on deep, deep, deep discount.....

"I am Legend"

I had the chance to attend a pre-screening of "I am Legend" tonight. This movie is loosely based upon Richard Matheson's 1954 novel. I was always fond of the Charleton Heston adaptation "Omega Man", but that version departed from the novel fairly radically.

The movie begins in New York City in the year 2009. Someone has developed a "cure" for cancer using a modified version of the measles. Fast forward three years and we find Will Smith - Dr. LTC Neville - as the last man on Earth (along with his trusty companion Samantha - a German Shepard).

Neville spends his days doing what one might expect in such a circumstance - growing food, scavenging for supplies and diving an assortment of new automobiles (free of an insurance payment or bank note).

Minor Spoiler Alert



Neville is not the last man on Earth. The modified measles virus did in fact cure cancer but in the process it killed 90% of those injected with it. Furthermore, nine percent developed some pretty nasty symptoms - aversion to UV light, a thirst for blood and hostility. Essentially these nine percenters became vampires in the classical sense, moving at night, holding up by day in dark recesses of buildings.

If you have seen "Omega Man" you will expect certain events based upon minor allusions to occurances in that movie. I thought it was a nice touch to keep us all guessing based entirely upon preconceived notions.

I will not ruin any more of the movie, you should see it if you enjoy the "end of the world/survival genre". I will say that the folks up in the SVR ought to raise a little cain at their exclusion at the end; it would have been a nice touch to see the flag at the Vermont location being that of the SVR but all the same we can imagine.

I thought this t be a pretty good film - no gratuitous sex, drugs or language - the science was no so far off to be unbelievable and the story was engaging. It is tough to pull of a movie with one actor for half the film.


Of course I cannot help but comment that the infection might never have spread past New York City at all if the regular people there were ARMED - also the film showed what we know to be true in real life during events like Katrina. That is the government is worthless at actually doing what it was created to do - protecting the people. All those years and all that money spent on doing things the government is not supposed to do meant that when push came to shove the people were left out flapping......Vote Ron Paul.

Zombie Apocalypse

87%

Austin Dating

I was surprised that I scored so low. I have always enjoyed "end of the world" type movies and I hate to admit it Zombie movies are my favorite in the genre. I was certain that I would have scored much higher - perhaps it was that question relating to if I would try to help a group of strangers. This is obviously just a flawed quiz - I would help the group of strangers and still be ok - head shots to all zombies.

All Hail the Nanny-State

A strange culture of emergency has taken over this country, and the slightest provocation triggers it. It could be an expected terrorist or just an old-fashioned weather warning. The officials are quick to swing into action, and tell you what to do.

The problem is that these demands are often based on nothing other than government plans that are not in your best interest. It behooves all of us to think carefully about genuine preparedness, which might often involve bucking the system and telling the emergency nazis to mind their own business. (Lew Rockwell)

Joshua pointed this article out, I have not had a lot of time to read much on the Net so I am happy that he did. A month or so ago he and I contemporaneously discussed the concept of survivalist and preparedness. It is an interesting topic for me, Blackfive covered the topic recently, it was overall a good read.

I suppose as a country boy/former boy scout/life time soldier I take this survival/preparedness stuff for granted. I am never without a "bug-out" bag no matter where I am and no matter what I am doing.

The notion that only the government can possibly know best is fundamentally flawed in almost every conceivable circumstance. I recall the last time my children were enrolled in a government run school receiving a memorandum one day laying out the school's plan for emergency situations.

This plan included shuttling the children to an undisclosed location, refusing to allow them to call home and not allowing parents to come to the school and pick their children up once an "emergency" was declared but before the government workers took them into hiding.

I was irate that night. My wife was upset but not to the extent I was. That was the seminal event that essentially pushed me over the edge and helped me convince my wife that there were many reasons that our children should be educated elsewhere (there were of course many other good reasons but this act of insanity was a big motivator for me).

This is but a small example of the very dangerous mindset that has overtaken our government and has been meekly accepted by most docile Americans.

Big Deal

It appears the "big announcement" I mentioned the other day from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is that they have moved the "doomsday clock" to five minute prior to midnight.

According to CBC:

Now modern dangers such as global warming and the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea are expected to inch the clock two minutes forward — to five minutes to midnight — though scientists have not confirmed the exact change.

I say big deal, what of it? All the more reason to have your "kit bag" ready.

Sage Advice

From Bill Losapio

Strengthen our family bonds.
Strengthen our bonds of friendship.

Begin trading with real gold and silver with each other…. vegetables at the farmers market, babysitting, mowing a neighbor’s lawn. Begin an “underground” economy completely independent of fiat money. Trade! Trade! Trade! Come Hell or high water, economic crash, or New World Order, for Goodness sake, trade! This, more than anything, must be done to reignite the division of labor, civil society, and peace should TEOTWAWKI dawn.

Dum Spiro Spero and the Rising of the South

Joshua points us to an article by Erik Curren that should warm the hearts of all Southrons -

Perhaps the best-known prophet of peak-oil doom is James Howard Kunstler, who predicts that America will suffer decades of economic hardship and political unrest after peak oil hits. In his 2005 book The Long Emergency, Kunstler writes that "it would be reasonable to wonder whether the United States will continue to exist as a unified entity, and what kind of strife the Long Emergency could ignite region by region."

I spoke about just such a scenario in a recent post.

Kunstler goes on to describe one possible response to this emergency.

The suburban development that has powered the economic engine of the New South for the last 50 years in places like Atlanta will grind to a halt. High-gas prices will make long commutes too expensive; cul-de-sac developments and McMansions will lose their value almost overnight; jobs will evaporate as businesses go bankrupt; and tax attorneys, neurologists and bond traders and their families will find themselves suddenly destitute.

Angry suburbanites - being Southerners, many of them own guns - will join with angry Crackers (Kunstler's word) in riots and rebellions directed at local and federal authorities, who will be increasingly powerless to respond as government starts to break down.

Well Kunstler is from New York for goodness sakes so I will allow him a few errors in his assessment - I shall also correct them here.

First, those people that move to subdivisions have pretty much ceased to be Southrons at all - to be certain many of them were born in the South, they may have a semblance of the dialect, they may even like to hunt and fish but they are not Southern. No real southerner could ever be happy living door-step to door-step with a bunch of other people on a piece of property that just a few years ago was probably prime pasture land.

Don't get me wrong, I know and I am friends with some of those people, but despite some trivial common interests, their very decision to fore-go freedom in exchange for convenience and "things" makes them something other that the heirs to the Southern tradition I live and enjoy.

Kunstler is right however, these people in their consumer driven cul-de-sacs are a potential problem when and if things turn bad. I have expressed my concerns related to the one subdivision within a reasonable distance of my farm in SC. Of course these people may have the numbers but they do not yet own the country side. They have not occupied by greed and consumerism each little town. They are incapable of sustaining themselves for long in bad times - let them eat cake.

Curren sees the flaw in Kunstler's assessment too -

Indeed, might the South, with its small-town and agrarian values, be better off in an energy-starved world where we have to make more of our stuff and grow more of our food close to home than many places in the North that have always relied heavily on trade and manufacturing?

While the twin evils of suburban sprawl and factory farming are indeed huge threats to a sustainable future, they have not yet entirely snuffed out the traditional Southern way of life that, in many aspects, remains a model for a re-localized society elsewhere.

[...]

Perhaps Southern towns will be slower to adopt written peak-oil plans or formal re-localization efforts than places in New England or California. But the flip side of this intellectual conservatism is that the South was also slow to give up the small-town life and vibrant communities that such activist efforts attempt to rebuild.

Like Staunton, hundreds of other towns across the region have embraced (or never abandoned) farmer's markets, revamped their downtowns and nurtured the best of the South's values - family, community and stewardship of the earth.

He continues with a wonderful description of what the South and her people are and are not and concludes with-

If Southerners choose carefully from their diverse heritage - discarding racism, violence and know-nothing jingoism while embracing community, family and stewardship of the land - the rise of Dixie could be a good thing for everybody.

It is really hard to disagree with this conclusion - racism was something I never knew in my part of SC - it was something I encountered first-hand in other parts, but not at home (meaning my community).

Vindice majores aemulamur

Chance Favors the Prepared Mind

Pragmatic Survivalist

Andreas' post got me thinking alright, after I penned my last post I went to bed with my head swimming in this subject. I will share a lot in this post I probably ought not share. If I ever hope to influence anyone with political thoughts I should not share what some will misunderstand to be "craziness" but to heck with all of that.

I mentioned in my last post that I was once fascinated with survivalist thought and that I have in fact made a lot of effort over the years to equip myself as a survivalist, more or less. I have to clarify all of that; then I will tell a story of how I intend to survive the bad times I foresee as a possibility. By "bad times" I mean a natural disaster forcing me to take care of my family for a few weeks up to one of the more dire scenarios listed below lasting upwards to a couple of years.

One of the numerous email newsletters I receive is from a gentleman named Bruce Beach. Bruce is the founder and driving force behind a project to build community based survival programs all over the world. His most famous work (or infamous according to Canadian "authorities") is a project called Ark II.

Bruce is a wonderful gentleman, we have conversed numerous times via email. We differ in our philosophical approach to mankind, our religious beliefs and our view of the future but my relationship over the years with him via digits has been rewarding. Sign up for his newsletter.

Bruce believes strongly in a nuclear calamity - I do not fear this as much as he but I do not discount the possibility. He believes that after the calamity mankind will be left without effective government and that communities must band together to survive and rebuild. Bruce does not welcome the calamity but he does see it as an event that will allow mankind to rebuild and correct mistakes of the past. He makes a good argument that you will survive the initial stages of a calamity.

I disagree with several points in his assessment. First, no matter how badly beaten up, government will survive any calamity, manmade or otherwise (more on that later). Second, such a calamity will not be the path to a brighter tomorrow, it would in fact hasten the march toward tyranny - imagine 9/11 response times 5000.

I agree with him that only communities can ensure the survival of most people during bad times - let's face it 99.99% of the population is incapable of being true individual survivalist. There is danger to the prepared family in this community response however. Suppose you are the only person around that prepared anything at all; suppose you have things that others want. The community could get together and "vote" to redistribute your goods. Local communities could be good or bad depending upon the character of your neighbors.

As for government in general consider this. No matter what scenario you want to go with - plague, nuclear Holocaust, peak oil theory, economic collapse or [insert anything] - the likelihood that the central government would cease to exist is minimal. Some piece of that gigantic leviathan would survive. If oil was expensive and hard to come by in the peak oil scenario - the government would still have oil. Government people would have whatever limited supplies of medicines were required to cure any disease. Some functionary would still be alive and kicking even after the most horrific nuclear scenario.

To be certain it is conceivable that government could be hampered for a time, maybe a long time. Just look at the FEMA/DHS response to Katrina - and those buffoons knew that was going to occur. Perhaps in the most extreme scenario imaginable the central government would have no real control of many areas for several months.

This does not mean that the central government would just give up and go away. To the contrary, the state of emergency and the powers the Federal Government would declare to itself would be greater than any ever considered in this land. Eventually they would come to "save you" - despite the fact that you had already survived the initial event and the traumatic after affects. Your rugged individualism would be championed in speeches but looked upon disfavorably in policy matters. You can just hear the talk now, "we have to do something about these rouge towns out there in the countryside, and what about all of those guns - they are a threat to democracy".

When I say I was a survivalist as a teen and I have made many survivalist preparations as an adult I mean that I prepare to face the bad time - the time between a world shaking event and the time that the government comes around to "save me". Now if it takes them two years to "get to us" and by that time we already have a pretty good system working they may have a problem on their hands when they come to say "we are from the government and we are here to help" - translation, we got our stuff in order and we are here to tell you we are in charge again.

Thus in my last post when I considered firearms for the survivalist, I left out one very important consideration. Suppose you and your community survive only to find two years down the road a Federal Government comes knocking, one calling itself the US Government and paying homage to The Constitution and all that but resembling say Lenin's Soviet Union - shouting "land, peace, and bread" or Hitler's German. Think it impossible? Tyranny follows disaster.

I suggest, as I have always suggested that firearms serve two purposes; to defend the individual and to thwart tyranny - with the minor ancillary purposes of hunting and sport. Surviving a major catastrophe only to submit to utter tyranny would be foolish - better to be armed and ready. If the world is to be remade after such an event - for good or bad - it will not happen without violence. You are either prepared to face that or submit to it. Keep you arms clean and your powder dry.

As a paleoconservative my philosophy is that communities are the key to everything - including surviving any potential disaster scenario. The lowest form of government is the seat of power that is best suited to help and the most deserving of loyalty in such cases (loyalty after that to God and family). In the United States the local sheriff is the highest lawman in the county (no matter who else with a badge shows up). If bad things happen we ought to be able to rely on ourselves first, then our neighbors and then our local government. My brand of politics and my political philosophy are not divorced from this concept at all.

Survivalism May Come Back

Andreas over at The Western Confucian forces me to think about a subject that used to be near and dear to my heart.

I have mentioned before my life growing up was a combination of half military brat half country boy. During the times I got to spend on the family farm I learned essentially everything that Hank Williams Jr. talks about in his song "A Country Boy Can Survive". I learned to plant, fish, hunt, grow, skin, clean, cook, fix and "gerry-rig". Of course my knowledge of these things was greatly reliant on an ordered society - no matter how much country folks like to believe otherwise their skills generally require other people and other resources to actually work. From that standpoint, "country boys" are not ready made survivalist.

Much like Andreas describes, I too spent a lot of time in my teens during the 80's reading survivalist materials. It was not so much that I was convinced then that the world was going to end, I thought that R.E.M. could have been right in their description of "The End of The World as We Know it." I was primarily fascinated with the notion and concept of making due without the conveniences of life, roughing it and beating the odds. To me that all sounded like a challenge, something akin to what early settlers (very early as in the mountain men) faced.

Now we are faced with several possible scenarios that could indeed spell the end of the system we know and rely upon; Peak Oil Theory being but one of these possibilities.

I think everyone ought to own a piece of land that they can call their own - a place that they can live on in good and bad times. Not everyone can be a full-blown individual survivalist but everyone should be able to grow a little bit (think British WWII Victory Gardens) or have a skill that they can trade.

Items to consider:

1. You must own the land/house you plan to use in bad times outright - no bank note!
2. Water - you must have access to it and be able to clean it.
3. You must have a skill that others need, have a massive storehouse or be able to produce everything you will ever need. The best plan is to store a little of hard to get things, be able and ready to grow things (hobby garden during good times) and have a skill that is tradable.
4. You have to be able and ready to defend yourself. (more on this below) The defending yourself part of surviving bad times is the lowest of concerns, it does not matter if you can defend yourself if you cannot first take care of yourself. Most of the old survival stuff I read placed guns first - these are just tools to ensure all of your other hard work remains yours.

Andreas asks about firearms for protection when things go bad. First you should have a shotgun - good for close range, easy to learn and maintain, hard to miss. Shotguns are good for defense and hunting - and if you were ever faced with three or four hungry vandals in a close fight a shotgun cannot be beat by the ordinary shooter. If you have only one gun it should be a shotgun - a pump action Remington 870 12 gauge.

If you have two guns then pick a pistol, in fact get one pistol for each adult capable of carrying one. Even in bad times most folks will not want to walk around with a long gun all the time. A pistol is easy to carry, and does not make you look like you are seeking a fight when you are just going out to the shed. Pick revolvers in a caliber that the owner can be comfortable with. Ignore all the talk of stopping power etc, it makes no sense to load up your wife with a .45 Colt revolver if she is not comfortable with it. Sure you could take her to the range every Saturday but honestly how long will that last - either she is a gun person or she is not. It is better to get her a .22 revolver that she can become comfortable with in short order. Avoid automatics unless you are very comfortable with them, better to go with a revolver (P1970 Peacemaker in .45 caliber). Remember load five and leave the hammer on the empty chamber. If you are really comfortable buy an automatic (as a secondary pistol) - you cannot beat a 1911 Colt .45.

For most folks a rifle is not the best use of funds. If it came down to either buying say some farming tool or a rifle - buy the farming tool. If you are willing to spend time figuring out how to shoot a rifle and hit things then buy a Ruger Mini-14. It is easy to use, there are tons of after market "goodies" available and it fires 5.56mm (which could be laying around if things turn bad).

Remember if it really came to defending your family and home such an event would likely occur when you were not particularly prepared for it (i.e. you are out minding your business in the garden or sleeping). Thus my recommendations tend toward weapons you can carry about loaded for extended periods of time without fear of springs etc. degrading and that allow you the best tactical advantage in a close fight.

Of course if you are a male and healthy enough you have a duty to assist the militia if and when it is formed to protect the community - for that you need a rifle. So if you are interested in doing your community duty go ahead and buy the Ruger Mini 14.