Back to the China Bit

(AP) The United States has some concerns about a rising China, including a military expansion that may be excessive, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Friday.

Beijing has spent heavily in recent years on adding submarines, missiles, fighter planes and other high-tech weapons to its arsenal and extending the reach of the 2.3 million-member People's Liberation Army, the world's largest fighting force.

Its reported military budget rose more than 14 percent this year to $35.3 billion, but outside estimates of China's true spending are up to three times that level.

"There are concerns about China's military buildup," Rice told a television interviewer. "It's sometimes seemed outsized for China's regional role."

More neocon "wisdom" from the 2006 Vietnam tour. (What are these fools thinking?

One good question from the statement above - Who is Rice to relegate a nation that is thousands of years old and is larger and more populace than any other nation to a mere "regional role"?

In June of 2005 I wrote four essays (here, here, here and here) stating a theory that perhaps the entire reason we went to war in Iraq was as simple as oil - not oil for us but for the sake of preempting peer competitors.

"Amidst the many uncertainties looming over China's future political and economic circumstances, one thing is evident: whatever the pace of economic development may be, China must address its rapidly growing demand for natural energy and resources. Oil will be at the top of this list. Though China's energy mix will continue to be based on coal, with oil accounting for only about 20-25% of its overall primary energy consumption, the supply of this strategic fuel will remain of critical importance to China's security." From the Brookings Institute 1999

Prior to September 2001 all Neocondi and her partners talked about was active containment of China. Their words were bellicose and most likely alarming to the Chinese.

Today I still stand by the premise that our invasion of Iraq was part of a large and complicated strategy to contain China. Creating a "stable, democratic, pro-US regime" in Iraq (if it had worked) would have gone a long way toward thwarting Chinese potential - at the very least it would have assured US influence over resources the Chinese desperately need.

But really what is the big fear surrounding China? Militarily this fear is baseless (unless one foolishly considers ignoring the military maxim of "never fighting a land war on the Asian continent")

Here are the facts: (Data from Global Firepower)

Spending:

US = $518,100,000,000

China = $81,480,000,000

So even if we go with an estimate higher than Condi's for China spending the US still spends FIVE times as much.

As for the overall size of our armies - China's is larger but it comprises only 20% of available manpower. The US military comprises 34% of available manpower. Proportionally the US maintains a larger military force.

China lacks every technological advantage required to face off with the US in a 2nd or 3rd generational conflict. They are an enemy only if we make them so, the neocons have insisted since 2000 in making them an enemy.

Technorati tags: China, neoconservatives