Sunday, October 21, 2007

Re: Dr. Strangelove

I believe that it is a crime against humanity for anyone to own and assemble nuclear weapons.
I tend to agree, in retrospect, looking back at the Cold War era it seems like a disturbingly weird mindset.Mutually assured destruction certainly does not meet the criteria of jus ad bellum.

I have not given this incident a lot of thought nor have I read a whole lot about it before today. My initial impression was "no way", "no way something like this could possibly occur as an accident". I know you might say that humans are fallible and mistakes happen but items like nuclear warheads involve a tremendous amount of checks and balances. Things like this are nearly impossible to occur as mere accidents.

I recall reading a few headlines soon after this event on obscure sites that mentioned that something more nefarious had occurred. I am summarizing because I did not dig into these stories at the time but essentially the idea was that these warheads were intended for the Persian Gulf and that the Air Force had rebelled in the middle of the mission.

This is a plausible explanation even if it is difficult to accept. I actually find this possibility much more believable than this all being nothing more than a mistake or accident. I cannot possibly imagine that nuclear armed ordinance was loaded on a plane and nobody questioned it. Heck, at the very least the pilot had to notice during his pre-flight inspection. For an event like this to occur as an accident a whole bunch of folks would have to be ignoring basic, fundamental parts of their jobs.

I know, if we apply Occam's Razor it seems to easy to accept that this was just an accident - albeit a nearly unbelievable one. Lex parsimoniae dictates that too many assumptions must be accepted to believe any other version. Yet I am not convinced. Something is rotten in Denmark and the accident story has its own list of assumptions - more assumptions than other possible scenarios.

I will tell you what I know about devices like this and their safekeeping, storage and handling (what I can tell you). These things simply do not move without being tracked, numerous levels of approval are required, an enormous amount of paperwork completed and an inordinate amount of security present. You cannot just "accidentally" drop by the warehouse, pick up a few of these things, load them on a plane and take them for a joy ride. It cannot happen - if you believe that it can I have real estate I want to sell you!

Update: I did a small search and found a few sites discussing this (well there are plenty but most are just scratching their heads about the "accident" story). Read on and please discuss if you find anything more telling - I really believe there was a lot more at play here.

It's About That Mutiny: Air Force Covers Its Tail With Transparent Feathers

Nukes Over America: Just a Stupid Mistake. Sure It Is By Dave Lindorff


Update II
: I see from further reading that these stories are from almost a month apart - however I do not think that discredits the possibility that this second incident is not related to something more nefarious than a mere accident.

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