After The Fall

It seems that sometimes events conspire to occur at the same time as to force one to think again about old issues. First, over the last two weekends my wife and I watched "Jericho" season one and two. Second, a few days ago I come across an article discussing a prediction by Igor Panarin predicting that the US will collapse and fall into six parts as a result of our economic malfeasance. Third, The National Bureau of Economic Research declares what most already knew the US is in the midst of a recession. Fourth, some economists have begun to predict the possibility of a depression. And then of course there is the fact that even Icelanders are rioting over their economic woes Icelanders, good grief. Lastly, my experience with after Thanksgiving shoppers reminded me of the greed at the base of humankind, and made me wonder what these animals would do if they were hungry and not merely looking for bargains.

As a student of history I know that old orders always pass away, sometimes quietly, sometimes violently. There is no reason not to assume the current order will fare any different. The question is all about when and how.I know in the past we had a few survivalist minded folk as regular readers here and I suppose that what I am about to write will appear rather bothersome to several widely held beliefs within that community. Bear with me.

Firstly, I think Panarins predictions are a bit premature even if taken over a rather long view of say 10-15 years. Economic collapse is not something that our Federal government would accept as a verdict on its policies and ideologies. It would not simply close up shop and pass away, admitting defeat and stepping aside for a better system to replace it. No, I am afraid they will deficit spend, borrow from foreign creditors, devalue the dollar when we can no longer make good on foreign debt and exact taxes at a rate unfathomable right now simply to remain in power. The grasping at power will be a long slow death, one that shall take us all on a willy-nilly ride to the edge of the abyss. And, sadly, we will go along for the ride with only minor disruptions along the way. In such a scenario there will certainly be riots and disturbances along the way but these will not be motivated from the perspective of a desire to change the system they will rather be demands for goods and services from the government to ease the pain of the ride.

Such disturbances and cries for help will serve only to validate the tyranny that will surely become part and parcel of our daily lives. If one thinks that the patriot movementfolks have it all wrong today with their warnings of growing tyranny I suspect that in the years to come the rational man will bow his head and sign if I only knew.

Even in this most dire of situations most people will consider their current happiness, safety and comfort paramount to all else - fixing the system at its core be damned.

Such a ride could last 20-30 years or in a scale of one human lifetime a virtual eternity. A central government determined to retain power can do so, at great cost it is possible.

Many in the survivalist community foresee a future in which our government, faced with economic collapse and social turmoil simply could not stand. If only it were true, for if this worst case scenario were to play out it would be our Federal Government that has brought it about and it would not deserve to stand. But history teaches us that power vacuums never exist, governments never go quietly into the night. I have studied data collected by the Ark Two people and I am convinced that even in the event of a large scale nuclear attack on say 20 US cities the Federal Government would survive. Perhaps the scenario would play out much like in Jerichoand it would take a few months for men with guns to arrive to your town and state we are from the government and are here to help....but someone with guns would show up. So even in the worst case the power vacuum would exist for no more than a year at most, probably much less (not saying survival preparations are not important, just the notion of an end to the world and a few rugged survivors rebuilding a agrarian utopia is unrealistic).

And why do I believe that our Russian prognosticator is wrong about the US breaking up into six parts in the short-term is wrong (beyond the facts stated above that the Federal Government would cling to ever last bit of power).

Simply stated...will

There are no regions in the continental US that are homogeneous in culture and philosophy to assert themselves as a separate entity for some time. Perhaps Hawaii if the tourist dollars stopped flowing, maybe Puerto Rico if the economic benefits stopped. Who else? Not the South we have forsaken our heritage. Alaska maybe independent minded and oil-rich. New England perhaps and maybe the only candidate in the lower 48. Nobody else has the will or identity to ask to get off the ride before it stops. Put aside your hopes of a free this or that while I am still a young man. Much education and much culture building must occur first and I am not sure that the simple principles of good culture can actually compete with the illusion offered by pop-culture.

Insurgency you say surely there would be good men willing to promise their lives, liberty and sacred honor to the cause of watering the tree of liberty.

Lets talk about that. The fact is the US military has become pretty good at COIN (counterinsurgency operations). Dont believe the hype, right or wrong, we are winning the counterinsurgency fight in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Our primary problem is that new fighters keep rolling into the fight. We plugged the border pretty well in Iraq and the fight has shifted t0 the Stan with a much more porous frontier. We have even reconfigured our formations we are in fact a constabulary Army. The new brigade combat teams are agile and efficient in a low-intensity fight and police work. They would get pummeled in a high-intensity brawl but that is not the point. Ten years ago we could not spell COIN....now we are pretty good at it.

And if you are thinking that without high-tech gear and constant resupply the Army would simply stall I propose that this in not the case. To be certain operating motorized as opposed to mechanized, without many of the toys would be less efficient, but it would be effective. Even in hard times the military would still be a formidable adversary to a domestic insurgency.

That is not to say it would be unbeatable and herein is the problem. We have no basis for an insurgency in the US. In the Middle East the foe we fight has tribal and religious ties that transcend any artificial government. As a people we have little understanding of history or political philosophy - hard to build a movement without ideas.

The center of gravity of American sentiment is based upon nothing more than temporary safety, comfort and happiness. American troops in the counterinsurgency fight in the Middle East have become very adept and non-kinetic operations designed to quell a village of discontent. You would be amazed at the friendship water and power can buy. Americans with no other loyalties than to themselves would be easier to buy.The counterinsurgency fight is all about the center of gravity and Americans are too accustomed to accepting empty promises if they appear to benefit them personally. No insurgency could survive in those conditions.

In any event successful insurgencies require 10% of the populations support (if there is foreign aid) and a significantly higher percentage without foreign assistance. The American Revolutionwas supported by 25-33% of the population and tremendous support from France at the critical points at the end. Just think about that 10% of our population (30,113,994) willing to become criminals andsacrifice their welfare and safety for an ideal not going to happen I am afraid.

What to do? Stop voting for commercialized talking heads, pray, pay off your debts, learn to grow a small garden, buy a few guns, read history, learn sustainable skills and find friends in your community that get it. Basically prepare to hunker down and ride out the storm and hope that the worst case does not come to pass. I for one believe it is inevitable.