Thursday, January 04, 2007

Do You Hear the Drums?

We all know Bush isn't going to accept the third option. America is not going to go home. Going long might be a nice aspiration, but Bush has only two years left in office. He has no idea who his successor will be and what he (or she) will do. If he wants to succeed in Iraq, he has to do something now. So we can expect President Bush to go big, ordering a "surge" in US combat troops in Iraq.

But there is another, far more effective option: go wide.

Going wide means recognizing that Iraq is just one front in a regional war against an Islamist Axis centered in Iran--and we cannot win that war without confronting the enemy directly, outside of Iraq.

Going wide means recognizing that the conflict in Iraq is fueled and magnified by the intervention of Iran and Syria. One of the reasons the Iraq Study Group report flopped was that its key recommendation--its one unique idea--was for America to negotiate with Iran and Syria in order to convince these countries to aid in the "stabilization" of Iraq. This proposal wasn't so much argued to death as it was laughed to death, because it is clear that Iran and Syria have done everything they can to de-stabilize Iraq, supporting both sides of the sectarian conflict there.

[...]

There is only one way to correct this massive strategic blunder--and that is to go wide.

(RealClearPolitics)

The author talks about warfare as if it were a football game. If running up the middle does not work and your receivers are not open go wide and run a sweep. Obviously this guy has never been shot at - probably never played football either.

Then of course there are the quiet little "leaks" one would expect - a way to test the waters so to speak:

A WAR against Iran could be launched within the next two years, a senior adviser to George Bush warned last night.

CIA specialist on Iran Reuel Marc Gerecht said there had been a "tidal shift" of opinion towards military action, especially in Israel. (Daily Mirror)

Of course we will continue to hear more and more from the MSM proclaiming a war as almost a foregone conclusion:

Within the next 12 months, the Americans or the Israelis, possibly both, are likely to launch military strikes aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Those strikes may come sooner rather than later. And they will probably be nuclear.

Israeli military analysts say intervention is essential before Iran’s scientists are able to complete the nuclear cycle — some time during 2007 — and start producing weapons-grade uranium. President Ahmadinejad himself has boasted of ‘mastering the fuel cycle’ during the Ten-Day Dawn festival in early February when Iranians mark the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. (Spectator)

I believe they are right but I wonder if this is contrived to build within the public mind the notion that this event WILL take place - as in "it is for the best and you cannot stop it"- or if this is merely reporting the facts as they are seen. I believe it is the former.

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