Where Does it End?

According to China's news agency (take it for what it is worth), Iran recently shot down a US drone (make and model not listed)

TEHRAN, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- Iranian troops have shot down a U.S. pilotless spy plane recently, an Iranian lawmaker announced on Tuesday as the Islamic Republic was facing increasing military pressure from its arch rival -- the United States.

I am really uncertain where the folks in Washington think this will all go. If they are foolishly planning a second or third generation attack they will certainly succeed in the short-term.

Iran's air defense structure is porous - in large part because doctrinally, Iran based their defensive posture on the US model prior to 1979. That model involves a primacy of fighters in a defensive role - rather than the soviet model that stressed defense in depth and an interlaced system of missile and gun batteries.

The fact is Iran's air fleet has significantly deteriorated over the years - even with the addition of Saddam's "gifts" in 1991 and subsequent purchases from China as well as an indigenous fighter production effort (resulting in something roughly equivalent to an F-5). All of this comes to naught.

Iran recently purchased the TOR M air defense system from Russia - probably the best system in the world in its class - but this is not enough to fill the holes in their air defense grid.

But really all of this is not the point - the US can destroy anything in Iran it desires. That is second and third generational thinking. The aftermath will not be second or third generational - Iran will be left with but one option - full scale fourth generational operations within Iraq. That sort of escalation will permanently spell defeat for any plan Washington may have for the region.