Three senior U.S. officials with access to intelligence told Reuters that U.S. speculation about a possible test centered on Sunday, the anniversary of when Kim became head of the national defense commission in 1997.
They said Pyongyang, which has in the past timed bold actions and announcements to coincide with significant dates, could choose Monday, North Korea Workers' Party Day as well as the U.S. holiday for explorer Christopher Columbus.
Beyond the personal inconvenience this would cause me (this is Chosuk - a five day weekend across Korea and a holiday for US military personnel) I have to ask why now.
Why would the Great Leader Jr. (Kim Jong-il) decide to play his hand now? Could it be that the rumors of preparations for an attack on Iran have merit - could it be that even though the US just handed over command and control of operations in Afghanistan this did nothing to reduce troop levels there - and could it be that Iraq is going terribly wrong, so wrong that we had to extend 4,000 additional troops and pull significant combat power out of the volatile western desert just to attempt to pacify the capital? I think junior is a shrewd poker player, he may see this as his best opportunity to flex his nuclear muscle without real fear our a concerted US response.
To be clear an actual test of a nuclear device by North Korea means nothing. Open source intelligence information confirms that the DPRK has enough fission material to make 6-8 bombs. However, their recent missile tests prove they do not have an effective, accurate strategic delivery system. It is also unlikely they could develop a weapon small enough to mount on one of their inaccurate missiles.
Nuclear weapons for North Korea serve two purposes. First it is a prestige item, it means the starving, impoverished nation has joined an exclusive club. Second, and less importantly, nuclear weapons provide the north with a tactical option - they could seriously damage key facilities and units in the south prior to or during an attack. Of course the second option presents a several difficulties but to a desperate regime it remains a viable option.
I predict that if North Korea is ready (technically) they will test their nuclear device in the very near future. The only thing the US can really do to stop it is offer a sweet deal -threats will not work right now.
Blogged at: Redneck's Revenge, Freedom For Some, Early Warning, The Real Ugly American
Update: (20:29 07 Oct)
South Korean soldiers rattled off 40 warning shots at the five communist troops who crossed the center line of the Demilitarized Zone, the inter-Korean buffer.
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