When the Empire Wants to Strike Back

NY Times: Have Kim Jong-il and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the men at the center of the twin confrontations that promise to dominate the last years of Mr. Bush’s presidency, looked at an America still pinned down in Iraq — its military stretched thin, its public weary of war — and concluded that this is their moment?

And if they have, is there much that Mr. Bush can do about it?

Last week I wrote that the US military hegemony is not as complete and total as GDP spending, troop numbers, technology etc. would indicate on paper.

Johnny and I are both real fans forward thinking folks that have preached since before 9/11 that the US must understand and integrate Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) into doctrine. Most of the discussion to date centers around operational and tactical application of this philosophy.

There is application to strategic thinking and planning that we have missed also. Sun Tzu might be able better than I to counsel the "deciders" on these points but let me state it as best I can anyway.

The fact is that even the strongest enemy cannot be strong everywhere all the time. No empire in history has ever been able to be completely dominate in all areas, all regions and in all circumstances at all time. (yes I do equate an economic and military hegemon with an empire of sorts so the comparison is fair in this instance).

The entire philosophy of 4GW dictates that you seek the weak spots of your enemy and exploit those. This principle is the same whether you are dealing with squads, battalions, divisions, regional armies or entire nations/empires. It differs from 3GW which concentrated on exploitation by maneuver in that in 4GW you pick when and where you will win, not just when and where you will fight. You attempt not to fight in 4GW in places and at times that you will not achieve something or where you do not have an advantage.

The US foreign policy is still third generational. We can move carrier battle groups, deploy long range bombers and put thousands of boots on the ground anywhere in a relatively short period of time. We exercise power by maneuver. But we cannot be everywhere at once, our enemies realize this.

To the above one must also add the fact of corporate, personal and government debt to the reason the American Empire is just not as strong as some proclaim.

The giant is not as nimble as some think and there are those that have realized this fact.