I predict that if North Korea is ready (technically) they will test their nuclear device in the very near future. The only thing the US can really do to stop it is offer a sweet deal -threats will not work right now.
As reported by Reuters, the U.S. Geological Survey detected a 4.2 magnitude quake at 10:35 (0135 GMT) in North Korea. Defense officials will still not confirm that North Korea actually tested a nuclear device. Translation - they know North Korea announced their intentions and they know that the evidence that a test occurred is there, they just do not know what to say yet.
By 01:53 EST Tony Snow was bellowing "We expect the Security Council to take immediate actions to respond to this unprovoked act." Whatever that means at this point. Here is the deal, North Korea called your bluff, the little tin-horn dictator smelled blood in the water and took advantage of the situation. The UN will not take action beyond words, sanctions and threats at this point.
Japan, still pretty sensitive about the whole nuclear weapons thing, broke out the "big guns" when Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki said in Tokyo that the North's reported nuclear test "is a serious threat and that Japan will lodge a stern protest."
So what does all of this really mean? What will really happen now? I heard some of the talking heads discussing last night the overwhelming military power the US has available in the region. This is true, even though we have taken an entire combat brigade from the Korean peninsula and deployed to to Iraq and then back stateside there are still 28,000 troops here. Of those about 9.000 or so are real killers. All of those neat and nifty B-2s and F-117's from Nevada, B-52s from Diego Garcia and Guam could reach North Korea with no problem. It is not that difficult to reposition carrier battle groups to augment the tactical airpower already here. But why?
Can the cork be put back in the bottle? Do the South Korean people want, and more importantly would they tolerate another war here. No they would and will not and we simply cannot fight a war here without them. Seoul is within conventional artillery range of North Korean guns.
Despite the fact that we could and would destroy those positions North Korea has teeth and would get in a couple of licks before going down for the count. Despite the fact that their Army is underfed, ill-disciplined, ill-trained, poorly equipped with 1950's vintage equipment they still retain some capability. Their military numbers 5.9 million with an estimated 1.1 million active frontline personnel. Most significant is the fact that they have emplaced 21,400 artillery pieces, third in all the world behind only China and Russia. It must also be remembered that those 21,400 artillery pieces are placed in a narrow front. The Korean peninsula in a fight where the North was the defender would prove that Artillery still can be the King of Battle. (data from Global Firepower)
South Koreans are not willing to wait three days for the counter-battery fight to be won while their capital is blown to bits. They are not willing to flee from their homes, Koreans in Seoul hate the country, they hate everything outside of Seoul. They have no desire to live like the refugees their parents described to them from their own childhoods.
So there will be NO military reaction. Not in the near term. I suppose from the stand point of those in the US and Britain that want to enact sterner laws allowing domestic spying this is a victory of sorts for them. Now they can say, "the axis of evil has nuclear weapons that can come into our lands in suitcases, we must be vigilant." Of course the fact is the device the North tested would not fit in the back of my pick-up back home. It was likely a monstrous bomb, akin to the WWII atomic devices, not the sort of thing a terrorist could easily sneak into anything. But we will be told soon that this is the threat we face.
The test by North Korea means little in the big picture. North Korea is years away from developing nuclear weapons that they can easily deliver and decades away from developing "suit case" nuclear bombs. This was merely the screaming of a petty bully who wants to feel important.
I told you he would do it, I tell you now it means nothing and the world reaction should be nothing more than, "damn you, you little irresponsible man - no rice for you and your pathetic country".
Update 21:13 09 Oct Korean Time:
Watching the English-speaking Korean channel (Arirang) it seems that all of South Korea is confused. The stock market crashed today, 21 trillion won lost. That is significant in a nation that lives and breaths commerce, significant in a painful and traumatic way.
Korean news reports no further incidents on the DMZ beyond the shooting incident yesterday. Apparently the ROK army is at DEFCON 4.
(The US is still not officially recognizing that a detonation occurred. I suppose we do not yet know if this is an issue that we want to make a big deal over. I mean there is nothing that can be done about NK now beyond a messy attempt to bomb nuclear production facilities. We cannot talk tough and not follow through, that would merely set a bad example for Iran. Bush and company are in a pickle right now.)
Since we US folks are still acting like nothing happened I went out into town, a veritable ghost town. Traffic patterns were askew, everyone glued to the television at home. I told my very good Korean friend that this test would occur last Friday and they were shocked at my pessimism. I believe not only the South Korean people but their government have lived in a fantasy world regarding their northern cousins. Peace will not come here to this peninsula until the North fails completely.
Of course I stand by my original statement, this is much to do about nothing and that is how the world ought to treat it. North Korea saw a crack in the armor of the US foreign policy and took advantage of it. This action is more a commentary on our ineffectiveness to exercise supreme power everywhere at the same time than it is a new viable threat.
See the Western Confucian for an extensive list of English languange regional articles.
The best analysis I've read thus far.
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